Australia Property Boom Charts

I am spending this week in Australia and revisited mine & a friend’s discussion about the Australian housing bubble thesis when his hedge fund was looking at shorting the US market a year or so ago.

The interesting bullish arguments in favor of Australia property market is similar to pretty much every other bullish argument in other market (e.g. Supply Shortage in India, Overseas Buyers in Florida, underlying macro (commodity, demographic etc…) theme etc…

Ultimately- none of these reasons mattered ultimately when it came up against Paolo Pelligrini’s Chart –

Here are some Pelligrini type charts from simple Google searches on the Australian Property market: 

Check out this economist interactive charts comparing Global Housing Indices-




File:Real Melbourne House Prices 1965 - 2010b.JPG

Background on my Bubble/Boom & Bust obsession:

I am a bubble/boom & bust chaser & giving my obligatory self referenence to boom/bust themes on my blog below:
But predicting bubble/bust sequences is a perilous business & even a broken clock can be right twice a day. Three examples: 
  1. From the Internet World –
  2. Michael Burry & his issues with being early on the US Sub Primer market call –
  3. From a GMO Report on how long bubbles last: See slide 6 of this GMO report on how long it takes for Bubbles to Manifest –
But this testimony by Warren Buffet on Spotting Bubbles & Price Action pretty much align with Paolo Pelligrini’s thesis (on Price Action) & other charts that I gave above:
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